MOUZ vs TYLOO prediction — IEM Beijing 2026

Key factors

• MOUZ won 2-0: Inferno 13-6 and Nuke 13-7.
• MOUZ won TYLOO's Inferno pick and its own Nuke pick without requiring the Mirage decider.

Notes

The supplied MOUZ pick at 60% was correct. This provides a positive Nuke observation, not proof that the earlier reliability concern is permanently resolved. TYLOO removed Ancient and MOUZ removed Cache, so neither proposed TYLOO route was tested. No confidence increase is warranted from this result alone.

Momentum

MOUZ finished Bucharest third, beating Vitality 2-0 after a 1-2 semifinal defeat to FURIA. Their preceding wins included Aurora, Spirit and The MongolZ.

LAN form

1 month: MOUZ have substantially stronger results against relevant opposition. 3 months: Mirage and Inferno offer potential winning paths, but Nuke remains disputed following the documented failed pick against Spirit. TYLOO's Cache and Ancient alternatives prevent treating every possible veto as favorable. Recent TYLOO stand-in results are separated from their restored five.

Psychology

No automatic home-crowd bonus or penalty. MOUZ's recent LAN performance supports the baseline, without an additional third-place-finish bonus.

Key risks

• STRONG at the minimum band boundary, with a conservative confidence ceiling; the supplied forecast record alone does not justify changing the numerical estimate.
• The first pass reports Jee's return as confirmed. His effectiveness after illness remains uncertain; TYLOO's four coach-substitution matches cannot be transferred unchanged to this lineup.
• Expected Anubis and Dust2 removals can leave TYLOO a Cache or Ancient route. MOUZ's selection must rest on a route to two map wins, not merely a favorable Mirage assessment.
• The Liquid loss exposed a veto-path error, and the FURIA loss exposed insufficient support for the second series win. These are specific audit concerns: neither successful Mirage assessments nor the Aurora win resolve Nuke reliability.
• The first pass reported market pricing substantially more confident in MOUZ. Those prices were not revalidated in this record-only review and do not increase the estimate.